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  },
  "cutoff_index": 72,
  "data_through": "2026-08-21",
  "display_year": 2026,
  "forecast": {
    "availability": "available",
    "backtest": {
      "post2002_completion_climatology": {
        "median_abs_pct": 10.6,
        "n": 24,
        "rmse_log": 0.1751
      },
      "post2002_shape_analog": {
        "median_abs_pct": 7.0,
        "n": 24,
        "rmse_log": 0.1659
      }
    },
    "calibration_log": -0.050987,
    "completion_baseline_point": 206.58,
    "display_point": 195,
    "historical_completion_range": {
      "label": "central 80% of post-2002 same-date completion outcomes",
      "n": 24,
      "p10": 184.05,
      "p50": 206.58,
      "p90": 274.66,
      "type": "descriptive_historical_range_not_predictive_interval",
      "years": "2002-2025"
    },
    "limitations": [
      "The historical completion range is descriptive, not a calibrated predictive interval.",
      "1998 is a pre-2002 gear-regime comparison and is not used in the primary model.",
      "No index-to-fish abundance conversion is published because conversion uncertainty is unmodeled.",
      "No Aug 30 or late-September timing probability is published because timing paths are not independently validated."
    ],
    "point": 196.31,
    "primary_model": "post-2002 historical-shape analog with robust multiplicative calibration",
    "raw_analog_point": 206.58,
    "scenarios": {
      "1998_pre2002_ratio": 210.37,
      "2008_post2002_ratio": 276.43,
      "long_run_mean_ratio": 212.58,
      "post2002_completion_median": 206.58,
      "primary_post2002_analog": 196.31
    },
    "sensitivities": {
      "frozen_v0_equal_ensemble": 215.31,
      "pooled_1956_2025_analog": 194.83,
      "post2002_analog_calibrated": 196.31,
      "post2002_analog_raw": 206.58,
      "post2002_completion_climatology": 206.58
    },
    "target": "final reported aggregate Tyee steelhead index",
    "tournament": [
      {
        "completion_climatology": {
          "median_abs_pct": 29.4,
          "n": 24,
          "rmse_log": 0.4983
        },
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "shape_analog": {
          "median_abs_pct": 29.2,
          "n": 24,
          "rmse_log": 0.5358
        }
      },
      {
        "completion_climatology": {
          "median_abs_pct": 17.7,
          "n": 24,
          "rmse_log": 0.2595
        },
        "date": "2026-08-15",
        "shape_analog": {
          "median_abs_pct": 14.0,
          "n": 24,
          "rmse_log": 0.225
        }
      },
      {
        "completion_climatology": {
          "median_abs_pct": 5.8,
          "n": 24,
          "rmse_log": 0.1086
        },
        "date": "2026-08-31",
        "shape_analog": {
          "median_abs_pct": 5.2,
          "n": 24,
          "rmse_log": 0.1003
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "guide_2026": {
    "label": "2026 champion estimate overlaid as a guide, not a rank",
    "point": 196.31,
    "range_high": 274.66,
    "range_low": 184.05
  },
  "guide_current": {
    "label": "2026 champion estimate overlaid as a guide, not a rank",
    "point": 196.31,
    "range_high": 274.66,
    "range_low": 184.05
  },
  "issue_id": "issue-64cf62e2bfa5f39c7be21f071999c4fdc3bb805ab7d1b491efd5b2759d2e342a",
  "issue_kind": "ordinary",
  "issued_at": "2026-08-22T14:25:49+00:00",
  "layers": [
    {
      "id": 1,
      "name": "Aggregate Tyee run",
      "status": "research_estimate",
      "summary": "Official daily index, champion forecast, frozen baseline, descriptive range, tournament, ledger."
    },
    {
      "id": 2,
      "name": "Stock composition and reach inventory",
      "status": "unavailable",
      "summary": "No 2026 stock or destination evidence. Named-reach inventory is not connected."
    },
    {
      "id": 3,
      "name": "Observed freshwater context",
      "status": "observed_context",
      "summary": "Reviewed provisional Usk discharge and Terrace A regional weather context. No fishing-success interpretation is published. See /context/."
    },
    {
      "id": 4,
      "name": "Encounter outlook",
      "status": "unavailable",
      "summary": "No denominator-complete encounter panel exists. Catch-rate forecasts are not published."
    }
  ],
  "ledger": [
    {
      "affected_ids": [],
      "issue_id": "2026-08-15-loo-equal-ensemble-v2",
      "issued_at": "2026-08-16T10:03:53-06:00",
      "kind": "ordinary",
      "model_version": "loo-equal-ensemble-v2",
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      "range_low": 169.01,
      "range_type": "legacy model-derived central 80% predictive distribution",
      "reason": null,
      "status": "superseded",
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      "range_type": "descriptive_historical_range_not_predictive_interval",
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      "status": "superseded",
      "supersedes": "2026-08-15-loo-equal-ensemble-v2"
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    {
      "affected_ids": [],
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      "kind": "ordinary",
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      "status": "superseded",
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    {
      "affected_ids": [],
      "issue_id": "issue-da22d7e64938473bbf6a1ab8237b2405b2600dea56633e0886ed9ebb3ba3382b",
      "issued_at": "2026-08-21T06:05:22+00:00",
      "kind": "ordinary",
      "model_version": "post2002-analog-completion-v1.0.0",
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      "range_high": 285.35,
      "range_low": 187.65,
      "range_type": "descriptive_historical_range_not_predictive_interval",
      "reason": null,
      "status": "superseded",
      "supersedes": "issue-867339e71b7fac3139cf268f4eea19e80656a947379d72ad8c150ea957f85fbf"
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      "affected_ids": [],
      "issue_id": "issue-7f426f26db5b91843a942e26cecb115538d46d622da531b5cee53e415969d36d",
      "issued_at": "2026-08-21T14:21:57+00:00",
      "kind": "ordinary",
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      "point": 197.15,
      "range_high": 278.86,
      "range_low": 185.13,
      "range_type": "descriptive_historical_range_not_predictive_interval",
      "reason": null,
      "status": "superseded",
      "supersedes": "issue-da22d7e64938473bbf6a1ab8237b2405b2600dea56633e0886ed9ebb3ba3382b"
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      "affected_ids": [],
      "issue_id": "issue-64cf62e2bfa5f39c7be21f071999c4fdc3bb805ab7d1b491efd5b2759d2e342a",
      "issued_at": "2026-08-22T14:25:49+00:00",
      "kind": "ordinary",
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      "reason": null,
      "status": "current",
      "supersedes": "issue-7f426f26db5b91843a942e26cecb115538d46d622da531b5cee53e415969d36d"
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  "month_days": [
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  "not_a": [
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      42.25,
      42.25,
      42.25,
      42.61,
      43.71,
      44.44,
      45.18,
      45.55,
      45.55,
      45.55,
      47.35,
      47.35,
      47.35,
      47.35,
      47.35,
      47.35,
      47.35,
      47.35,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      48.09,
      49.19,
      49.19,
      49.56,
      49.56,
      49.56,
      49.56,
      49.56
    ]
  },
  "product": "Tyee completion tracker",
  "season_state": "in_season",
  "season_stories": [
    {
      "accounts": [
        {
          "class": "official_compilation",
          "label": "Guide logs",
          "text": "Babine guides reported 3,539 steelhead in 1,671 rod days."
        },
        {
          "class": "peer_reviewed",
          "label": "Stock composition",
          "text": "Genetic assignments put Babine at 27% and Bulkley drainage at 31%."
        },
        {
          "class": "anecdotal",
          "label": "Babine story",
          "text": "A second-hand oral account describes exceptional 10-fish days. Unverified."
        }
      ],
      "caution": "Guide records are self-reported. Creel encounters can include repeat captures. Neither measure is a Tyee-index conversion, and the 'arms hurt' line was not independently located.",
      "grade": "Official + peer-reviewed + oral history",
      "headline": "The folklore has a statistical spine. The most colourful line remains oral history.",
      "summary": "The 1998/99 guide table records 3,539 classified-water Babine steelhead over 1,671 rod days: 2.12 reported catches per rod day. A genetic study found Babine fish were 27% and Bulkley-drainage fish 31% of the sampled 1998 Skeena return. A Bulkley creel survey observed 676 released steelhead in 5,326 interview-hours.",
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "accounts": [
        {
          "class": "official_stock_assessment",
          "label": "Moricetown",
          "text": "Stratified estimate 33,047; pooled estimator 41,140."
        },
        {
          "class": "anecdotal",
          "label": "Weather turn",
          "text": "Contemporary reports describe 35 mm of rain in 24 hours ending a clear-water window."
        }
      ],
      "caution": "The stock assessment supports abundance. Fishing detail is anecdotal and partly commercial.",
      "grade": "Official + contemporary web accounts",
      "headline": "A huge return that could feel magical or nearly impossible depending on the weather window.",
      "summary": "The Moricetown program estimated 33,047 arrivals with its stratified model. Contemporary reports describe weeks of clear water followed by a late-season blowout.",
      "year": 2010
    },
    {
      "accounts": [
        {
          "class": "official_compilation",
          "label": "Guide review",
          "text": "Highest total guided Skeena catch in the reviewed series."
        }
      ],
      "caution": "Elite guide logs can coexist with many anglers catching nothing.",
      "grade": "Creel + guide-report evidence",
      "headline": "The strongest guided-catch ledger in the reviewed series, with ordinary outcomes underneath it.",
      "summary": "The guide-data review identifies 2000/01 as the highest total guided Skeena steelhead catch in its series: 9,358. A Bulkley creel warned that its fixed-site rate was not river-wide.",
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "accounts": [
        {
          "class": "official_mark_recapture",
          "label": "Moricetown",
          "text": "Estimate at least 25,289; later migrants were not represented."
        }
      ],
      "caution": "This is the first post-2002 season. It is in the primary donor pool, unlike 1998.",
      "grade": "Stock + guide-report evidence",
      "headline": "A major return in the first year of the current net regime.",
      "summary": "The Moricetown tagging estimate was 25,289 steelhead upstream of the canyon (20,596–33,941). Sampling stopped 27 September and missed later migration.",
      "year": 2002
    },
    {
      "accounts": [
        {
          "class": "anecdotal",
          "label": "Babine diary",
          "text": "Entries describe extraordinary clusters and no-fish days."
        }
      ],
      "caution": "The diary is not an official creel and was not independently audited.",
      "grade": "Official use data + first-person diary",
      "headline": "A later-published diary is the closest public analog to the double-digit-day story.",
      "summary": "A purportedly contemporaneous 1984 Babine diary records both a 16-fish day and blank days.",
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "accounts": [
        {
          "class": "official_mark_recapture",
          "label": "Population",
          "text": "Two estimates agree near 27,000–28,500; one interval is very wide."
        }
      ],
      "caution": "Guide catch is self-reported licence-year data, not a whole-river creel.",
      "grade": "Mark-recapture + guide reports",
      "headline": "Another large inventory year with thin surviving public narrative.",
      "summary": "A sport-fish mark-recapture estimate for autumn 1999 put 27,005 steelhead upstream of Moricetown Canyon (22,261–35,479).",
      "year": 1999
    },
    {
      "accounts": [
        {
          "class": "official_mark_recapture",
          "label": "Moricetown",
          "text": "Second-largest Bulkley/Morice return in the 2001–2010 tagging series."
        },
        {
          "class": "anecdotal",
          "label": "Daily texture",
          "text": "A contemporaneous blog distinguishes hookups from landings and records blank days."
        }
      ],
      "caution": "The blog totals are hookups, not unique fish or landings.",
      "grade": "Official estimate + contemporary blog",
      "headline": "A large modern Bulkley/Morice inventory with a surviving day-by-day account.",
      "summary": "The final Tyee index was 193.86. Moricetown mark-recapture estimated 27,484 Bulkley/Morice arrivals (22,097–37,856). A contemporaneous blog records feast-or-famine days.",
      "year": 2008
    }
  ],
  "snapshot_hash": "de77b3b35aceb537de2a1f4936dd19deae12590e08f24d4154a7897996c83c21",
  "top_completed": [
    {
      "gear_era": "pre-2002",
      "total": 265.68,
      "year": 1998
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "post-2002",
      "total": 233.92,
      "year": 2010
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "pre-2002",
      "total": 223.87,
      "year": 2000
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "post-2002",
      "total": 206.52,
      "year": 2002
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "pre-2002",
      "total": 200.36,
      "year": 1984
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "pre-2002",
      "total": 194.43,
      "year": 1999
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "post-2002",
      "total": 193.86,
      "year": 2008
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "post-2002",
      "total": 189.69,
      "year": 2016
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "post-2002",
      "total": 182.78,
      "year": 2018
    },
    {
      "gear_era": "post-2002",
      "total": 172.46,
      "year": 2012
    }
  ]
}