01 · Observe
Start with the official record.
The model reads the operated cumulative Tyee index through the issued cutoff. Non-fishing days remain operationally missing, not biological zeroes.
Official through Aug 21170.50
2026 completion outlook · through Aug 21
Where this Tyee index may finish
195
about
Final reported aggregate Tyee steelhead index · Tyee completion tracker
Official through Aug 21 is 170.50. Post-2002 seasons with similar same-date shapes feed a raw analog of 206.58. After correcting the bias exposed in backtests, the issued completion estimate is about 195.
Index, not a fish count. Not an operational fishery forecast. Limits
How the estimate is built
Observe, compare, calibrate.
The model asks one bounded question: when past post-2002 seasons looked like this by the issued cutoff, where did their final Tyee index land? Every step is declared and retrospectively scored. Full methods and the evidence dashboard remain one gesture away.
02 · Compare
Match the season’s shape.
Completed seasons from the declared 2002+ net era supply the analog shapes. The 1998 record remains pre-2002 context only.
Raw shape-analog completion206.58
03 · Calibrate
Correct what history exposed.
Target-excluded backtests showed the raw analog’s bias. A frozen multiplicative calibration produces the issued point estimate.
Calibrated completion estimate196.31
The season archive
Every year has a shape.
Select a year and scrub the season day by day. Values are cumulative index carried through the selected date. The display contract does not publish a per-day operation mask, so a selected historical day is not labeled operated. 1998 is pre-2002 context and is never a primary donor.
2026 versus 1998 (pre-2002 net), 2008 (post-2002 net), and the long-run mean. The dashed path is an illustrative analog completion, not a validated travel-date forecast. DFO changed the Tyee net in 2002; 1998 is labeled context, not a donor.
Cumulative Tyee index
2026 official trajectory
2026 officialselected yearissued completion guide
Cumulative index carried through the selected date170.50
Aug 21
Observed freshwater context
River now
Reviewed freshwater context is loaded after the page opens. If it is missing, withheld, malformed, or unavailable, this panel stays unavailable rather than inventing a number.
Read it honestly
Boundaries
Official agency products remain authoritative. This page does not publish a forecast rank or an index-to-fish conversion. It is not a Run & River Observatory and not a DFO, Province of BC, First Nations, or partner product.
Index is not abundance.
Tyee is a relative-abundance and timing index. No index-to-fish conversion is published because that uncertainty is not modelled.
185–275 is historical context.
The descriptive historical completion range describes past same-date outcomes; it is not a calibrated predictive interval around the issued estimate.
No promise of fishing success.
River conditions, stock allocation, fishability, and angler encounter rates remain separate unavailable targets.
DFO remains authoritative.
This independent public-interest reading is not a DFO, Province of BC, First Nations, or partner product.
Research
Descriptive association reporting is ready. None of the seven Holm-adjusted associations is below 0.05; the smallest is 0.06887862242755145. No timing candidate passed the predictive-usefulness gate, so TIMING-ECO-3 prediction is not ready and no retrospective champion was selected.
The generated TIMING-ECO-3 readiness packet remains the immutable pre-review record and stays locked. Public reporting uses the append-only adjudication ledger. Association reporting may be described as ready only because that ledger says so. That flag is report-readiness, not a statistically adjusted association claim, not prediction readiness, and not a selected champion. Holm-adjusted p-values below 0.05: 0 of 7.
Read the plain-language research summary · Methods and evidence
What stays unavailable
A visible unavailable state is better than a fabricated estimate.
Layer 1 · Aggregate Tyee run
research estimate
Official daily index, champion forecast, frozen baseline, descriptive range, tournament, ledger.
Layer 2 · Stock composition and reach inventory
unavailable
No 2026 stock or destination evidence. Named-reach inventory is not connected.
Layer 3 · Observed freshwater context
observed context
Reviewed provisional Usk discharge and Terrace A regional weather context. No fishing-success interpretation is published. See /context/.
Layer 4 · Encounter outlook
unavailable
No denominator-complete encounter panel exists. Catch-rate forecasts are not published.
Need the audit tables, tournament, and unofficial preview? Open the evidence dashboard.